Global trade to shrink by 5% in 2023; pessimistic...

(VOVWORLD) – The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) stated in its quarterly report, Global Trade Update, released on the 11th, that the global trade value in 2023 is expected to shrink by 5% compared to last year, reaching approximately 30.7 trillion USD.

Merchandise trade in 2023 is projected to decline by around 2 trillion USD (8%), while services trade is expected to increase by about 500 billion USD (7%). One contributing factor to the contraction in global trade is the weak exports from developing countries.

UNCTAD noted,

“Global trade has been declining throughout 2023, mainly due to reduced demand in advanced economies, weak economic performance in East Asia, and falling commodity prices. Collectively, these factors have contributed to the significant contraction in merchandise trade.”

The outlook for global trade in 2024 remains highly uncertain and generally pessimistic. UNCTAD stated that while certain economic indicators suggest potential improvement, continued geopolitical tensions, high debt levels, and widespread economic vulnerabilities are expected to negatively affect global trade patterns.